Why AP called Ohio’s Republican US Senate primary for Bernie Moreno: Race call explained

WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong performance among voters who cast their ballots Tuesday — the day of the election in Ohio — powered Bernie Moreno to a win in the state’s GOP primary for the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press declared Moreno the winner at 8:35 p.m. EDT, when he led state Sen. Matt Dolan 41% to 37%. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose was in third place with 22%, and both he and Dolan would fall further behind over the next two hours as more votes were counted.

Moreno is a Cleveland businessman who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. He will face Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown in November in what is expected to be one of the country’s most competitive contests in the battle for control of the chamber.

The AP was able to call the GOP primary for Moreno by analyzing not just the overall vote totals but also the methods in which voters cast their ballots.

Moreno built a sizable lead among votes cast on election day. Since the issue of early voting became highly politicized after the 2020 presidential election, election day voting has tended to favor Republicans and conservatives, while votes cast before election day have tended to favor Democrats and moderates.

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