Why AP called Iowa for Trump: Race call explained

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former President Donald Trump scored the first victory of the 2024 presidential primary season Monday with a sweeping and broad-based win in the Iowa Republican caucuses. The Associated Press declared the former president the winner based on an analysis of initial returns as well as results of AP VoteCast, a survey of voters who planned to caucus on Monday night. Both showed Trump with an insurmountable lead.

Initial results from eight counties showed Trump with far more than half of the total votes counted as of 8:31 pm. ET, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in a tight competition for second place, far behind the former president. These counties included rural areas that are demographically and politically similar to a large number of counties that had yet to report.

What to know:

• Counting the vote: How AP provides election results with speed and accuracy.
• Every U.S. election night since 1848, The Associated Press counts the votes. Questions on our role in election race calling, answered.

In traditional primaries, AP does not declare a winner in any race before the last polls are scheduled to close in the contest. It’s sometimes possible to declare a winner in those races immediately after polls close, before any vote results are released. AP does so only when its VoteCast survey of voters and other evidence, including the history of a state’s elections, details about ballots cast before Election Day and pre-election polling, provide overwhelming evidence of who has won.

The Iowa caucuses are different. There are no “polls” and no fixed time when all the voting ends. Instead, there is an 8 p.m. ET deadline for voters taking part to arrive at their caucus site, at which