Why Abortion Matters In This Suddenly Competitive Blue-State Senate Race

For eight years, Maryland was one of the handful of blue states that loved its moderate Republican governor. Roughly a third of Maryland’s registered Democrats twice crossed party lines to elect Larry Hogan, to counter the Democrat-controlled legislature of a state that President Joe Biden won by 33 points.

But Hogan won’t have an easy time convincing Democrats that he should succeed retiring Democrat Ben Cardin in a race where Republican chances went from literally nonexistent to a growing concern overnight.

Don’t expect Maryland Democrats to give Hogan a pass because they supported him for governor, or because he’s one of the few Republicans willing to say negative things about Donald Trump. Hogan’s opponents have previewed the attacks likely to dominate the general election here, and chief among them is the notion that Hogan would be a rubber stamp for Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell to appoint conservative judges and pass a national abortion ban, which is deeply unpopular among most voters .

“They don’t even need to make it seem like Hogan is an anti-abortion extremist,” said Mileah Kromer, the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College in Maryland, which conducts the Goucher College Poll . “All they need to do is tie him to a party which most Democrats already view as anti-abortion.”

Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist and former communications director of the Democratic Governors Association, acknowledged that Hogan was a “recruiting success story” for Republicans in a race they would otherwise have written off. But he emphasized that Democrats will be looking for any opportunity to yoke Hogan to a toxic GOP brand.

“Part of the reason why Larry Hogan was popular was because