Why 2nd place in Iowa is so important

CNN —

Former President Donald Trump is undeniably the front-runner in Iowa’s Republican caucuses. While we have not had a single poll conducted and released publicly in January, the ones from December put Trump in the strongest position of any Republican at that point before the caucuses.

This might leave you asking why we should care about either Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley given they were both more than 30 points behind Trump in those same polls. The pair will face off in a CNN debate on Wednesday night, their final chance for a breakout performance ahead of next week’s contest. (Trump, for his part, declined again to debate his opponents and will instead do a Fox News town hall.)

The reason: Iowa results do a fairly lousy job of predicting what happens in the New Hampshire primary, but Iowa could help winnow the field as well as provide a momentum driven boost heading into New Hampshire.

Let’s start with what is obvious at this point: DeSantis is not doing well in New Hampshire. The latest CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire has DeSantis down to fifth place with a mere 5% of the voter support.

It’s tough to imagine DeSantis having any real shot at the Republican presidential nomination if he came in third in Iowa and came in third or worse in New Hampshire. DeSantis’ campaign has to know that.

History is littered with southern conservatives who bet it all on Iowa and dropped out afterward. The one that comes most immediately to my mind is Phil Gramm. He, like DeSantis, was a fundraising machine and was seen as Bob Dole’s strongest rival for the 1996 GOP nomination. Gramm, though, finished poorly in Iowa and left the race.

If DeSantis finishes