Who has the 'Keys to the White House'? Historian with ace record calling elections weighs in on Trump verdict

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Former President Trump's criminal conviction in his historic New York trial may have thrown the 2024 presidential election into unprecedented upheaval – or it may not have, according to Dr. Allan Lichtman.

The American University historian, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, told Fox News Digital that instant analysis of Trump's conviction is meaningless as the country looks forward to Election Day. "We're not going to know much until the sentencing hearing on July 11, right before the Republican convention," Lichtman said in an interview.

Allowing himself to speculate, the proven prognosticator said Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records does not appear to have fundamentally cracked his base, which Trump will need united to defeat President Biden in November. But no one knows, neither Lichtman nor the pundits he perennially outperforms, how Americans outside Trump's base will react to a convicted criminal on the presidential ballot.

"We don't know how this might affect moderate and swing independent voters. So really, we have got to look over time and not rely on instant, unreliable punditry," said Lichtman.

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Lichtman is a historian, not a psychic. The formula he's used to correctly