What to watch on Super Tuesday: Why the delegate math shows Haley has little room to stop Trump

Former President Donald Trump enters Super Tuesday with a big delegate lead over former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential race — and by the end of the night, he will most likely find himself closing in on the magic number he needs to officially end the contest: 1,215 delegates.

Haley has won just one contest — the one in Washington, D.C. — and her reliance on a coalition that leans heavily on affluent, college-educated suburbanites (including non-Republicans who may simply see her as a vehicle to register disgust with Trump) faces two mighty Super Tuesday headwinds.

First, numerous contests are in states with demographic profiles decidedly unfavorable to Haley but right in Trump’s white, working-class wheelhouse. And second, even where the demographics are Haley-friendly, party rules in many cases limit non-Republicans’ participation and all but require outright majorities to collect delegates.

While a strong showing in New Hampshire netted her a significant share of the state’s delegates, more states coming up this month have delegate rules like those in South Carolina, where 40% of the vote netted Haley just 6% of the state’s delegates. In other words, even relatively strong showings aren’t likely to translate into meaningful delegate hauls on Super Tuesday if she can’t win states outright. And if Haley can’t either broaden her coalition or supercharge friendly turnout, she’ll finish Tuesday buried beneath a Trump delegate avalanche.

To illustrate the scale of Haley’s challenge, we have looked closely at the demographics, participation rules and delegate allocation formulas for every GOP caucus and primary taking place Tuesday and in the next wave of contests March 12 and March 19. For each one, we