What to watch for in New York’s high-stakes House special election

CNN —

The special election to replace former Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, an emerging battleground that could serve as a bellwether for other suburbs this fall, appears to be headed for a neck-and-neck finish after two months of campaigning bolstered by millions in outside spending.

The district, which encompasses Nassau County on Long Island and northeast Queens, is largely well-educated and affluent – the kind of place Democrats now expect to win – but because of its ideological diversity, a recent trend toward the GOP and a deeply rooted county Republican Party machine, it has become a true Election Day wild card.

Rep. Tom Suozzi, Democratic candidate for New York's 3rd Congressional District, and Rep. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., left, conduct the "Women For Suozzi Rally," in Port Washington, New York, on Saturday, February 3.

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Tuesday’s outcome could provide lessons for both parties as the general election season nears and both the presidential contest and the race for control of the House are expected to turn, in large part, on the views of suburban voters.

In the near term, victory for Democrat Tom Suozzi, who previously represented the district in Congress after running Nassau County for most of the 2000s, would provide a lift for President Joe Biden – who won the district by 8 points in 2020 – and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, who will likely need the seat if he’s to become speaker next year. Victory for Republican Mazi Pilip, a largely unknown county legislator from Great Neck, would signal the potential for more GOP gains across the country – and