What to expect from today's Ontario budget

Ontario Premier Doug Ford keeps on describing the province's economy in glowing terms, but plenty of economists believe a far less rosy picture will be painted when Ford's finance minister tables his budget on Tuesday.

«The world is talking about Ontario right now,» Ford said when asked about the state of the economy during a news conference in Richmond Hill last week.

«It's absolutely staggering what's happening here in Ontario,» he said. «We're an economic powerhouse.»

Ford pointed to the multi-billion-dollar plans by Stellantis and Volkswagen for electric vehicle battery plants in Ontario and predicted the province will see a record amount of corporate investment this year.

Contrast that with what bank economists are saying ahead of the budget:

• «Ontario's economy is set to take a more pronounced step back,» says RBC's latest provincial economic outlook. It says major construction projects for electric vehicle battery plants «won't be enough to counteract the broader cooldown from high interest rates and slower global growth.»

• «Business bankruptcies in Ontario have surged in recent months amid economic weakness,» says the latest provincial economic forecast from TD Economics. «Private sector employment has been falling since mid-2023.»

• «Uncertainty abounds,» says the budget preview from Marc Desormeaux, principal economist for Desjardins Financial. «The full effects of interest rate hikes haven't yet been felt and there are questions about how public sector wage increases could impact the bottom line.»

These more measured assessments of Ontario's economic and fiscal situation are why many observers predict a relatively cautious budget from Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy.

«Economies are weaker and you know, the