What’s at stake in 2024

CNN —

America and the world could look glaringly different by January 1, 2025, depending on the outcome of a momentous crush of conflicts, pivotal global elections and geopolitical forces that will create critical moments in the year ahead.

A fateful White House race will again put democracy on the line in the United States. And Donald Trump is far from the only far-right populist having a resurgence; the movement is on the march in Europe as well. Wars in Ukraine and Gaza are at risk of sparking far wider reverberations, while economic and political stability is threatened by massive migration flows, fears of recession and the broadening impacts of climate change. On most issues, overpowered, democratic governments are struggling to show their voters they have the answers.

The world doesn’t change just because a calendar flips from one year to the next. But given the confluence of events we know that will happen this year — as well as all the unknowns, the Olympian year of 2024 could mark a watershed in the history of the 21st century.

An epochal US election

The most foreseeable global shock of 2024 would be the election of Trump, who would become only the second US president to win a non-consecutive term. The ex-president is already openly telling us that he intends to subject US democracy and the American-led global order to its greatest test.

The Republican front-runner vows to use the authority of the presidency to wreak “retribution” on his enemies and gut bureaucracy to make the government an instrument of his personal power. Comparisons to Nazis are overblown at this point, but Trump’s rhetoric – including his labeling of political opponents as “vermin” and warnings that immigrants will pollute the