What numbers in Bihar Assembly look like if Nitish Kumar switches alliance?

Uncertainty looms over the future of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar amid speculations that the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) might snap ties with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Sources told on Friday that Nitish Kumar is likely to resign in 24 hours and is "poised to form government in Bihar", in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Nitish Kumar is the current Chief Minister of Bihar. He formed the Bihar government in alliance with Lalu Yadav's RJD, the Congress and Left parties in 2022, after snapping ties with the NDA. Nitish Kumar is also a key member of the Opposition's INDIA bloc.

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As of now, the The Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 members. Here's what the party-wise composition looks like as per data on Bihar Vidhan Sabha :

The RJD has 79 MLAs

The JD(U) has 45 MLAs

The BJP has 78 MLAs

The CPI(M-L)(L) has 12 MLAs

The Congress has 19 MLAs

The HAM (S) has 4 MLAs

The AIMIM has 1 MLA

The CPI(M) has 2 MLAs

The CPI has 2 MLAs

There's one Independent MLA

A political party needs 122 (half) of the total 243 seats to form government in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar has 159 MLAs in total.

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Nitish Kumar's JD(U), which has 45 MLAs in the Bihar assembly, may form a government in alliance with the BJP, which has 78 MLAs. Both parties together will have 123 MLAs, just one more than the half-way mark need to form the government. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM [S]) had also joined the NDA in July 2023, making the task easier for Nitish Kumar in 2024.

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If JD(U) quits and the RJD plans to stake claim for the government in alliance with the Left parties, then the coalition would need eight more MLAs to come into power in the state. With the