What next for Pakistan?

A stint in jail is a rite of passage for civilian Pakistani leaders bold enough to challenge the country’s generals. Imran Khan is doing his penance these days in Rawalpindi’s Adiala jail. Judges sentenced the 71-year-old former cricketer turned populist politician to 31 years earlier this year after convictions on religious, corruption and national-security charges. Because candidates allied with his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), managed nonetheless to win more national-assembly seats in February’s election than any rival party, Mr Khan is in “extremely high spirits", says his sister Aleema, a regular visitor. He passes his time reading and keeping fit on a stationary bike in his cell.

The image of Mr Khan pedalling furiously while stuck in place seems an apt metaphor for Pakistan’s post-election politics. PTI’s unexpected success at the polls demonstrated the party’s resilience under pressure. Yet while it has managed to form one provincial government, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI’s leaders are otherwise marginalised. Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, enjoys firm backing from “the establishment", as Pakistan’s armed forces are euphemistically known. He now leads a minority national administration anchored in his family’s dynastic party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Mr Sharif recently put the finishing touches to a cabinet of technocrats and traditional politicians. After two tumultuous years, he could be forgiven for hoping for calm.

But he is likely to find it elusive. Mr Sharif’s government faces three challenges in the coming months. The first is that Mr Khan is determined to overturn the status quo, even from prison. Outraged by allegations of vote-rigging during the February vote, PTI