What Labour Could Learn From The Tories’ 2017 Electoral Catastrophe

A few weeks into the 2017 general election campaign, when the sun was shining and Tory activists were dreaming of eradicating the Labour Party forever, an experienced and knowledgeable campaigner turned to me and said: “we are going to lose this”.

He was talking both about that particular marginal seat on the edge of London and the wider campaign. It seemed almost mad at the time. “CCHQ are sending us to the wrong places,” he continued, gesturing to the constituency map. “We are talking to the wrong voters.” 

A month later, he was vindicated. While the Conservatives did remain in power, they had only just limped over the line to a hung parliament, their government propped up by a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP after Theresa May’s Commons majority was shattered. Jeremy Corbyn-led Labour, meanwhile, was jubilant about a youth vote surge that prevented them from being totally hammered. 

As the UK faces its latest general election, the memory of 2017 looms large. For the ailing Tories, that anguish is now a source of hope. For Labour, consistently ahead in the polls and widely expected to be voted into government by the end of this year, it serves as a warning that big leads can evaporate on contact with campaigning realities and results don’t always match initial forecasts. 

But the real lesson, for Labour in particular, should be understanding how and why May’s Tories threw away their head start, and to guard against repeating history with more than the superstitious humility of Keir Starmer’s anti-complacency directive. 

When the Tories lost from nearly twenty points in front, it wasn’t simply fate. It was the result of a badly mismanaged campaign that failed on almost every level. Not only did they make