What Bihar seat numbers don’t tell: RJD first in vote share, JD(U) saw steepest fall

The NDA may have performed better in Bihar than Uttar Pradesh, winning 31 of the 40 seats in the state, but its vote share has dipped significantly, with victory margins of its candidates shrinking considerably.

Also, while the JD(U) recorded a better strike rate than the BJP in Bihar – it lost only four of its 16 seats, compared to the BJP’s five out of 17, thus emerging as a kingmaker at the Centre – its vote share has shrunk more than that of the BJP.

In contrast, the RJD, which won just three seats despite a spirited campaign by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, has increased its vote share by over 6%, compared to 2019.

These trends could be a signal of things to come in the 2025 Assembly polls in Bihar, where the JD(U)’s newfound importance within the NDA could be tested against its popularity on the ground. Across caste lines, voices on the ground suggest that Nitish did not enjoy the popularity he once did in the state, and the electorate may look for alternatives in 2025.

In 2019, the BJP-JD(U)-LJP combine won 25 seats with a victory margin of over 2 lakh votes. Of these, the NDA won by 3 lakh or more votes in 13 seats. This year, they won by over 2 lakh votes in only two seats – Araria and Muzaffarpur.

The smallest victory margin was recorded in Saran, where the BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy defeated Lalu Prasad’s daughter Rohini Acharya by just over 13,600 votes. The highest victory margin was recorded in Muzaffarpur, where the BJP’s Raj Bhushan Chaudhary won by nearly 2.35 lakh votes, against the Congress’s Ajay Nishad.

The significant dip in margins was reflected in the vote shares of the parties. The BJP got a vote share of 20.5% – a 3.5% fall from 2019. The decline for the JD(U) was 3.75%, to around 18.52% of the vote