Was Trump’s Nomination Always Inevitable?

Nikki Haley’s exit from the presidential race this morning all but assures former President Donald Trump of the Republican nomination, in a contest that has been notably lacking in suspense. But that wasn’t always the case.

As recently as a year ago, less than half of Republican voters in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average named Trump their preferred candidate. Was that unsettled landscape an illusion? Or were there moments along Trump’s road to victory that could have led to another outcome?

I put this thought experiment to several political observers. They considered several moments that loom large in retrospect, starting in the final days of Trump’s presidency, and discussed how things might have gone differently.

One scenario would have unambiguously changed the course of the election: a Senate conviction of Trump after his impeachment in the House of Representatives over his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, which would have paved the way for his disqualification from ever running again.

Initially, the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, entertained the idea of supporting impeachment. He told associates he was pleased that Democrats were moving to impeach Trump, believing that it would make it easier to purge him from the party. But when the decisive moment arrived, he voted to acquit Trump, who escaped conviction in the Senate by 10 votes. (McConnell endorsed Trump today.)

The Senate vote was an important early indication that the Republican elites who would have been happy for Trump to fade from the political scene were not going to take matters into their own hands, hoping instead that Republican voters would do the job.