VP debates may alter a close race’s dynamic even when they don't predict the winner

Vice presidential debates have produced many memorable moments, but it’s hard to say any has made a decisive difference in the election outcome.

This year the anticipation may be higher than in the past, if only because the race is so close and neither candidate seems to have a clear advantage. The debate may provide the moment of decision for some voters and even a tipping point in a closely balanced electorate.

Much of the electorate is still getting to know the running mates chosen by former President Donald Trump and Vice President Harris. Trump’s choice, Ohio’s JD Vance, has only been in the Senate since last year and Harris’ Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota has not previously campaigned for office outside his home state.

All 11 previous running mate debates have taken place in the month of October, just as the media and campaign aficionados find themselves needing a new angle on the presidential race. They have usually been mixed in with multiple debates between the presidential candidates themselves. But after one meeting with Harris, Trump is saying it is too late for another. So the Vance-Walz debate appears to offer the campaign’s last live confrontation.

That makes this October 1 match in New York seem far more important than the VP’s usual “undercard” status: In boxing terms, it could be the main event of the campaign’s final month. That expectation and tension have hovered over the Battle of the Twos in every four-year cycle for decades now, and it’s worth recalling how much media heat and drama they have generated.

Rewind to the first one

The first vice presidential debate was in 1976, the year of America’s Bicentennial, when the political system needed something to restore people’s faith. The nation was emerging