Vancouver Island is shaping into a Conservative-NDP battleground in the next federal election

There's a storm brewing on Vancouver Island — and this one isn't coming in off the coast.

When the next federal election rolls around, five of the six ridings the New Democrats hold on the island could be scooped up by the Conservatives, according to polls aggregator Eric Grenier of The Writ.

It's a potential shift that residents of Campbell River, B.C. are starting to notice on the ground.

«I feel the island is more conservative than it's been, especially the north island,» said Kelsey McCrea, a mom of three who co-owns a local welding business with her husband.

«I think up to this point it's been more people's heartstrings voting NDP than their actual common sense. And I know for myself, my household, my family, all our friends, we will not be voting NDP. We will be voting Conservative.»

Island voters have largely supported New Democrats in the last few federal campaigns, while also sending Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to Ottawa and an additional Green MP in 2019.

Voters haven't sent a Liberal MP to Parliament since the 2008 election. And while no Conservatives currently hold a seat on the island, the party took two of them in 2011, when Stephen Harper won a majority.

McCrea said her vote is motivated by rising business costs. Her company is often hired to repair commercial fishing boats and build steel docks and boat ramps.

«We've noticed the cost of steel and aluminum has increased significantly since COVID, and it has not decreased,» she said. «And that affects our business, and it affects what customers can afford on their end, and it affects the affordability of what we can produce for people on the whole island.»

McCrea said she and her husband pay themselves and their employees average wages, which doesn't leave them