Two years on, the war in Ukraine becomes a test of Western staying power

Anniversaries — like birthdays — can be awkward events.

And the more of them you have, the more awkward they become — especially when you're called upon to mark the onset of the enormous carnage, misery and loss that has been the experience of Ukraine for the last two years.

Almost in passing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — after signing a long-term security assurance package with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday — remarked how 24 months ago, no one expected to be here.

While it was partially a reference to the well-worn assertion that Moscow — and many in the West — had expected a swift Russian victory following its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Trudeau, perhaps inadvertently, touched on the dismay that is at the heart of wavering support among the world's democracies.

How could this still be going on?

This weekend saw a deluge of military, economic and political explanations and prognostications that dissected where we've come from and where we might be going.

What was largely unspoken in Kyiv but implicit in the security packages signed this weekend by Canada and Italy (and earlier by the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Denmark) is that with this anniversary, we have crossed a Rubicon, one that Western democracies have not had to face in such a visceral and substantial way since the Second World War.

The early wars of the 21st century, in Afghanistan and Iraq, may well be viewed through the long lens of history as a test of patience, rather than what Ukraine is shaping up to be.

The long, bloody, expensive and excruciating road ahead will be a test of the staying power of societies — within Ukraine and perhaps even on a grander scale.

We're seeing signs of it in Ukraine with the debate over