Trump wins big by letting Biden be Biden

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Going into Thursday’s debate, I said the two candidates would have to fight their own worst tendencies to reassure voters. Rusty from years off the debate stage, they’d have to reach out to that double-hater demographic, suburban doubters and independent voters. This small sliver of voters that remains undecided needed to be reassured in different ways.

From President Joe Biden, they needed to see a man who was in command, smooth and consistent in his delivery, who could defend a record that simply doesn’t feel great to the average voter. They needed to see a man who laid to rest concerns about his age, or at least quelled them for a night, as he had done at the State of the Union.

From former President Donald Trump, they needed to see a man who was temperate and disciplined, who could contrast his record with Biden’s while controlling his bombastic personality quirks and tendency to re-litigate his worst moments and dwell on 2020.

CAN BIDEN BE REPLACED AS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE?

The most advantageous version of both men that could show up was the State of the Union version. State of the Union Biden is more energetic and fluent, with a handful of policy points at his disposal, if disconcertingly loud. State of the Union Trump is Trump but more subdued, with a handful of ad libs.

Only one of those guys showed up, and the