Trump vs. the GOP’s old guard — What to watch for in Ohio: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior national political reporter and Buckeye State native Henry Gomez breaks down what to watch for as the results come in tonight in the Ohio Senate Republican primary. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains why a decline in split-ticket voting spells trouble for Democrats' chances to maintain Senate control.

3 things to watch for in Ohio’s GOP Senate primary

By Henry J. Gomez

Ohio’s volatile Republican Senate primary offers clear lines of division between the new GOP establishment, led by Donald Trump, and the old establishment Trump has been slaying since 2016.

Trump, who twice won Ohio by 8 points, helped elevate JD Vance to the Senate in 2022. He is trying to do the same this year with Bernie Moreno, a former car dealer.

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Nevertheless, the old guard persists. Gov. Mike DeWine, former Sen. Rob Portman and key allies of former Gov. John Kasich are backing state Sen. Matt Dolan, a more traditional conservative who has kept Trump at a distance.

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, meanwhile, is polling in third place. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in what’s expected to be a grueling and expensive general election. Here are three things to watch for in tonight’s primary results:

Is the Trump magic still real in Ohio? Many expected that a Trump endorsement would effectively clinch the nomination — and it still might. But the former president and Moreno both have had to work hard in the final days to close