Trump victory trades to swell after shooting, investors say

Saturday's shooting at U.S. former President Donald Trump's election rally raises his odds of winning back the White House, and trades betting on his victory will increase this coming week, investors said on Sunday.

Trump was shot in the ear during the rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday in what the authorities were treating as an assassination attempt. Trump, his face spattered with blood, pumped his fist moments after the attack and his campaign said he was fine after the incident.

Before the shooting, markets had reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve, and those trades could strengthen in the coming week, said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.

The first shooting of a U.S. president or major party candidate since a 1981 assassination attempt on Republican President Ronald Reagan could upend the Nov. 5 rematch between Republican Trump and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, which has been tight in opinion polls.

"From memory, Reagan went up 22 points in the polls after his assassination attempt. The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty," said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management.

World leaders and U.S. politicians condemned the shooting, while some industry executives, including Tesla chief Elon Musk, declared their support for Trump.

Since a shaky performance against Trump in a presidential debate two weeks ago, Biden has faced growing doubts from donors, supporters and fellow Democrats about his ability to beat Trump and keep up with the demands of the job.

Immigration and economy have been