Trump v Biden: Guilty verdict won't seal the deal for either man. Here's what will deliver a win

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With all the media attention this week, and indeed for the last couple of weeks, one would think that the 2024 presidential election will turn on the results of the recently concluded trial in New York City where Trump was convicted on all 34 counts on Thursday.

Based on polling by my firm, Schoen/Cooperman and that of other independent firms, both media and non-media, that is far from the truth. In fact, an examination of the polls that have come out in the days prior to the verdict suggest, pretty compellingly, that the 2024 election is unlikely to be about Trump and his legal problems or Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden who goes on trial later this month on gun charges.

Put simply, the American people are not concerned about these issues. They’ve already factored in their assessment of the candidates and those assessments are reflected in the polls. And, to the extent that there’s been any impact of the four sets of criminal charges filed against Trump, if anything, they have helped, if not hurt him, specifically with Republicans. But even since the trial began Trump’s numbers have improved marginally in the seven key swing states. And indeed, very modestly nationally as well.

IN TRUMP TRIAL THERE WAS NO REAL CRIME BUT AMERICA JUST LOST SOMETHING IT CAN NEVER GET BACK

When you look at the polls in detail, what voters