Trump trial verdict: if guilty, what would ex-president’s punishment be?

If a Manhattan jury convicts Donald Trump on any of the 34 counts of falsifying business records in the hush-money case, the immediate next question will be what punishment the former president should receive.

It’s a decision that rests entirely with Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case. The crime Trump is charged with, falsifying business records in the first degree, is a class E felony in New York, the least serious category, and punishable by up to four years in prison.

But Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to prison if he is convicted, experts say. He is a first-time offender, and the crime he is charged with is a non-violent paper crime. “I think the judge would probably not incarcerate him under those circumstances alone,” said Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University who called any sentence of incarceration “unlikely”.

“But also given that he is a former president, has a Secret Service detail and is also the presumptive Republican nominee, I think a term of incarceration would be logistically very difficult, but also would have political implications that I think Judge Merchan would want to avoid.”

Any punishment is likely to consist of fines, probation, community service or some combination of those.

“I would like to see community service – picking up trash on the subway,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former top prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

Much could depend on how Merchan interprets Trump’s conduct, including any lack of remorse.

“I can’t imagine we will see a remorseful, apologetic Trump if it comes time for sentencing,” Bader said. “Judges also consider the harm caused. On one hand, Judge Merchan could view this as a technical recording violation to cover up tawdry