Trump might be winning now, but here are four things that could change that

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As unlikely as it seemed four years ago, former President Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite to win the presidential election if it were held today. In presidential politics, things could change in a day with a court ruling, a scandal, a misstep or just a great campaign, but that’s the clear reality of today.

Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the Harvard-CAPS/Harris polls by about 5 points and in the FoxNews polls by 3 points as of May 24. It is closer in the Real Clear Politics average that shows a gap of only 1.1%, but swing state polls across the media show Trump routs in almost all of them.

Underlying the horse race are issue and performance dynamics that favor Trump by more than the horse race numbers: Trump’s personal favorable rating is actually higher than Biden’s, his job performance better by 11 points and Trump is winning key issues like the economy by wide margins.

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But this race is far from over. Thirty-One percent of voters, including 44% of Independents, say that they are still weighing their choices. That’s a huge number for an election with known incumbents and good news for Biden.

Today, however, 55% of Americans look