Trump is favored, but Biden can still win this election

CNN —

If you follow my work, you know that I’ve tended to be pessimistic about President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection. There are plenty of reasons for that – for instance, he’s trailing in the polls both nationally and in swing states, and has an approval rating south of 40%.

But sometimes it’s worth taking a step back and looking at the counterargument. Biden’s been through arguably two of the worst weeks for a president running for reelection that I can recall, and he’s still within earshot of former President Donald Trump.

If you average the national polls since the debate 15 days ago, Trump’s ahead by 3 points. An NPR/PBS News/Marist College poll out Friday morning even put the race at 50% for Biden to 48% for Trump (a result within the margin of error).

No one should be comfortable calling the presidential race with these sorts of polling results. Since 1972, the average difference between the polls at this point and the eventual result has been 6 points.

Sometimes races change by far more than that. Democrat Michael Dukakis led Republican George H.W. Bush by mid-to-high single digits at this point in 1988 before the party conventions. By the time the race was over, Bush had defeated Dukakis by 8 points.

President Joe Biden speaks at an event in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on January 12, 2024.

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Biden and Trump’s own history should make you think twice about calling wraps on this race as well. Biden was ahead by 9 points in the early July national polls in 2020. He ended up winning the national popular vote by only half that (4.5 points).

Such a shift in Biden’s direction this time around would put him