Trump could see an easy win in the polls after the first debate — but not because of Biden’s age

Donald Trump may see a bump in the polls after the first debate because of a long-running trend: Incumbents tend to do worse in the first debate of the presidential election season.

Presidential debate historian Alan Schroeder explained to NBC News that a president’s life exists in a “protected bubble.” The first debate takes them outside of that bubble, where they’re forced to face off against a pumped up opponent who’s been itching for a showdown.

The first debate in this election cycle will be hosted by CNN in Atlanta on June 27. Biden is heading to Camp David on Thursday night to begin his preparations.

Incumbents tend to grow accustomed to the deference they’re shown within the White House, and after four years, they’re in for a rude awakening when their opponent throws punches on the debate stage, Schroeder said, noting that presidents tend not to hear much “conflicting information” during their four years in the “bubble.”

He added that incumbents may need to “transition” back to “being a normal citizen.”

“Every president thinks, ‘I know how to run a presidential campaign because I won one a few years ago,’” Samuel Popkin, who played Ronald Reagan during mock debates with Jimmy Carter during the 1980 campaign, told NBC.

Popkin said Carter became “uncomfortable” and “embarrassed” when Popkin played Reagan during the preparations.

“The president looked lonely and vulnerable when he heard Reagan’s critique in front of his wife, his closest friends, and his inner circle,” Popkin wrote in his book The Candidate.

A “bewildered” Carter suggested they stop after just 11 minutes. Reagan won in a landslide, carrying 44 states. But in 1984, it was his turn to step out of the bubble as he faced Carter’s Vice President