Trump can easily win in Nevada. And if he does, he’ll likely win the election

On Sunday, former president Donald Trump brought his campaign to Las Vegas in his first rally since a jury in Manhattan found him guilty on 34 charges.

The event fell off track as six attendees in the Las Vegas heat went to the hospital as temperatures exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit. In response, Trump cracked that he did not want anyone dying because “we need every voter. I don’t care about you. I just want your vote.” He then called President Joe Biden’s recent executive order on immigration “bulls***,” saying that it is “pro-invasion, pro-child trafficking, pro-woman trafficking, pro-human trafficking and pro-drug dealers.”

The rally was rightfully referred to by many as absurd. But one part isn’t absurd at all: Trump was not entirely wrong to hold his first rally since the verdict in the Nevada, since he has a legitimate shot at winning the Silver State. Indeed, despite the fact that it only has six electoral votes, Nevada might hold the key to Trump winning a tight presidential election.

On the surface, Democrats should have little reason to worry about Nevada. It has not voted for a Republican for president since George W Bush won re-election in 2004 and it has two Democratic Senators: Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina Senator in US history; and Jacky Rosen, the state’s first Jewish woman Senator, who is up for re-election in 2024.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid famously built the state’s Democratic Party apparatus into an well-oiled organization. That organization includes the powerful Culinary Workers Union, who service the state’s sprawling hotel and service industry and who engage in vigorous door-knocking and voter turnout operations.

Given the large Latino population in the state, the union has