Trump aims for Iowa win after tilting 2024 race to his advantage by pursuing rule changes

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign anticipates winning the Iowa state caucuses and advisers have suggested internally they would only be concerned about the former president being upstaged if another candidate started polling within five or 10 points, according to people close to the campaign.

The margin of the expected win has been an informal litmus test for several weeks, and with none of Trump’s rival candidates close to breaching that threshold, the campaign has been confident Trump will win the state’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest.

Victory for Trump in Iowa would give him crucial momentum that advisers hope will propel him to the Republican nomination for 2024, as well as the personal satisfaction of attaining what eluded him in 2016, when he finished second – after Ted Cruz, the senator from Texas – despite leading in the polls.

The confidence inside the Trump campaign is tempered mainly by the recognition that low turnout from supporters could undercut Trump’s commanding position, a situation he has attempted to address by scheduling a blitz of rallies before the 15 January caucuses.

Trump returned to Iowa on Friday to run through four campaign rallies in two days after visiting the state infrequently in recent months, at least compared to his main rivals, Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, and Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor.

In presidential primaries and caucuses, voters cast ballots in their states as the first of two steps. The outcomes of those contests determine which individuals, called delegates, will go to the Republican national convention to formally be chosen as their party’s nominee.

The idea for the Trump campaign is that a victory in Iowa would give him the necessary momentum