Tory Veterans Doubt That 1992's Election Luck Will Strike Twice

The idea that the Conservative party could repeat John Major's unexpected 1992 election victory is one of the few remaining hopes floating around among Tory MPs. But if opinion polls, the economic backdrop or the mood of the party are anything to go by, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has a bigger challenge on his hands than his predecessor three decades ago.

One Tory veteran who was re-elected in '92's surprise Conservative victory told PoliticsHome the contest unfolding right now feels more like the Labour Party landslide of 1997.

Some current Conservative MPs have returned from the Christmas break apparently feeling more upbeat about their prospects at the next general election and claim Sunak still has time to emulate Major. 

In 1992, the then-Tory prime minister won a 21-seat House of Commons majority after a long series of opinion polls published in the run-up to that election indicated that Labour, led at the time by Neil Kinnock, would win a majority – or at least be returned as the largest party. 

The temptation for hopeful Tories to draw a parallel with that election is obvious. Thirty two years later, despite Labour's leads in today's opinion polls showing no signs of falling away (YouGovput the Conservatives 23 per cent behind Keir Starmer's party on Friday), more optimistic Tories believe that early signs of economic recovery give Sunak a fighting chance of defying the odds as Major did and prolonging his stay in Downing Street.

So far the Prime Minister's electoral 'better the devil you know' strategy aims to focus on the Conservative Party's tried-and-tested claim that only they can be trusted to look after the public finances, arguing that a Labour government would mean reckless spending and higher taxes.

Sunak has