Tories feeling blue in Elmwood-Transcona after trying to convince orange voters to see red

When a federal byelection was held in 2023 in the southern Manitoba riding of Portage-Lisgar, there was no question the Conservative Party of Canada would hold on to the profoundly conservative seat.

Nonetheless, the Conservatives poured money and resources into that race in a concerted effort to extinguish any political spark remaining in the hearth of Maxime Bernier and his People's Party of Canada.

The strategy was successful. Conservative Branden Leslie amassed 65 per cent of the popular vote, while Bernier was only able to draw 17 per cent in one of the few Canadian ridings believed to be receptive to his brand of populist conservatism.

An attack from the right is no longer a threat to the Conservatives.

In this week's Manitoba byelection, the Conservatives employed another unusual strategy.

They tried to retake Elmwood-Transcona, an eastern Winnipeg riding that's belonged to the NDP for all but four years of its existence, by trying to ensure voters were keenly aware of the two-year governance deal between the New Democrats and the unpopular governing Liberals.

For most of the summer, Conservative campaign signs in the riding referred to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh as «sellout Singh» and depicted him in a handshake with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The Conservative strategy was clear: attack the New Democrats, whom a significant number of east Winnipeg voters have always liked, by going even harder on the Liberals, who have never enjoyed better than middling support in this corner of the city.

Running against one party by tying them to another was a novel strategy, U of M political studies Prof. Royce Koop said earlier this month.

«The Liberals are very unpopular. They're certainly not competitive in that seat,» and so an