To Keep The Senate, Democrats Need A Surprise Victory In At Least One Of These Three States

CHICAGO ― Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stood on stage at the Democratic National Convention and made a very bold prediction.

“We’re going to hold the Senate again, and we’re poised to pick up seats,” he told the delegates in the United Center.

The fact Schumer feels confident in his prediction reflects the remarkable strength of most Democratic incumbents in swing states. But it also flies in the face of a tough reality for Democrats: Even if they win every swing state race, it might not be enough to get them control of the U.S. Senate.

To keep the word “majority” in Schumer’s title, Democrats will need to win at least one of three states where Republican nominee Donald Trump is a significant favorite in November: Texas, Florida or Montana. Each of the three states presents distinct challenges for the party, and it’s difficult to describe them as favored in any of the three.

It’s the culmination of a long-standing problem for the party: The Senate’s bias toward rural states advantages the GOP’s political coalition, forcing Democrats to repeatedly pitch the political equivalent of perfect games to stay in control of Congress’ upper chamber.

Republicans clearly believe the social conservatism of those voters will be more than enough for them to flip the Senate, with a win in West Virginia essentially guaranteed following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W. Va.). Democrats currently have a 50-49 edge in the chamber.

“Securing the border is top of mind for voters, and Senate Democrats are delusional if they think they’re going to win with candidates like Colin Allred, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Sen. Jon Tester, who have long records of opposing border security,” said Torunn Sinclair, the communications