Three reasons Joe Biden is improving in the polls – and one why his numbers are still low

Since the final quarter of 2023, President Joe Biden has seen brutal poll after brutal poll showing his numbers tanking. The reasons for his decline have been manifold: people continue to worry about his age; young Democratic voters are dissatisfied about his support for Israel; people still blame him for high inflation.

But Biden’s polling numbers seem to be improving to some degree. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey showed Biden about even with Donald Trump. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week also showed the race virtually unchanged from February but still too close to call. My colleague Andrew Feinberg reported last week that the president has cut into Trump’s lead in multiple swing states.

Trump still has numerous advantages, given that his supporters seem more enthusiastic. At the same time, Biden has started to gain some structural advantages. Here are three reasons why Biden is improving – and one reason why he still trails Trump.

People feel the economy is getting better

As I wrote last month, Biden really could not ask for a better economy going into re-election. Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that unemployment stayed below 4 per cent. While that slightly ticked up, the amount of people in the labour market – which is to say people who either have a job or who are looking for one – stayed the same.

In the same way, inflation has been perhaps Biden’s most persistent enemy. But now, hourly earnings continue to grow and they now seem to be outpacing inflation. That means that people are finally starting to feel the cooling of inflation that began around 2022 because they have more money in their pockets.

And people seem to be rewarding that performance. The CNBC survey