The spectre of another Trump presidency looms as Trudeau's cabinet gathers to start a new year

In August 2016, when the current government was less than a year old, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet gathered at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ont. for a two-day retreat. The ministers bunked in the student dorms. The big story of the week concerned a $1,700 bill for car service incurred by Jane Philpott, health minister at the time.

Among their special guests were Michael Barber, the British guru behind "deliverology," and David MacNaughton, the experienced Liberal adviser who was serving as Canada's ambassador to the United States.

«All of the smart people in Washington were saying the Democrats were going to win the House, the Republicans would retain the Senate and Hillary Clinton would win the election,» MacNaughton later told me. «And I qualified it by saying, 'All of the smart people in Washington have been consistently wrong for 18 months, so don't count on it.'»

At that point, national polls gave Clinton a six-point lead over her Republican rival. But the government needed to be prepared for every eventuality, MacNaughton told the ministers.

Three months later, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.

As Trudeau's ministers gather in Montreal for meetings this week, the possibility of a Trump presidency haunts Canada again. If anything, it seems even more plausible now than it did in 2016 — even after Trump incited a violent attack on the United States Capitol in 2021, even after he was indicted on 91 felony charges. Recent polls show President Joe Biden and Trump running roughly even.

The Liberal cabinet likely will spend most of its time discussing purely domestic matters during its two days in Trudeau's hometown — «building more homes» and «helping the middle class get ahead» will