The Shifting Political Ground Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

For decades, the U.S. electoral politics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have been defined by a very simple fact: Voters almost never changed their ballots because of it.

As Israel’s devastating offensive in the Gaza Strip enters its fourth month, an estimated 22,000 Palestinians have been killed and the rest of the 2.3 million people in Gaza are suffering from mass starvation and continued bombardment after a shock Oct. 7 attack by Gaza-based militants that killed 1,200 Israelis. The question for political operatives in the United States is whether the current crisis in the region will have an unprecedented effect on American voters,particularly Democrats, given the near-universal agreement on full-scale backing of Israel among Republican politicians.

The answer could determine how close a series of key Democratic Senate primaries will be, whether progressive Democrats can retain the ground they’ve gained since 2016 and potentially whether President Joe Biden can triumph in an important swing state.

“Traditionally, Israel itself has not been a very salient issue in campaigns directly,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who leads the Democratic Majority for Israel, a super PAC aiming to maintain a hard-line pro-Israel position in the party. Mellman noted, though, that it has long motivated people on both sides of the divide to get involved as volunteers and donors. “Is there going to be a big back and forth on this between us and other groups or between candidates? That remains to be seen.”

Political strategists on both sides of the issue within the Democratic Party are still puzzling over the new playing field, unsure if they can effectively use a candidates’ position on a cease-fire or their ties to