The race for George Santos’ congressional seat could offer clues to how suburbs will vote this year

A special election in the suburbs of New York to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos could offer clues about the mindset of suburban voters everywhere as 2024 election contests ramp up across the country.

The Tuesday contest for the House seat held by Santos until his recent expulsion is shaping up to be a bellwether in the fight for control of Congress, as candidates test political messages their parties hope will appeal to suburban voters in the fall. It not only could subtract one more vote from Republicans’ narrow majority in the short run but will be monitored carefully for any signals it sends about what suburban voters elsewhere may be thinking entering the highly volatile 2024 election year.

The Long Island race pits former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who represented the district for three terms before quitting to run for governor, against Republican nominee Mazi Pilip, a county legislator.

The seat, which represents suburbs just east of New York City plus a small part of Queens, became vacant after Santos was expelled from the House late last year after getting charged with multiple counts of fraud and stealing from donors.

While the Santos scandal gives the race a unique backstory, the candidates have campaigned on issues that could be aimed at suburban voters anywhere, with Republicans hammering away on immigration and crime while Democrats cast themselves as the last line of defense on abortion rights.

Tuesday’s special election gives both parties an opportunity to assess strategies for November’s general election, when New York is expected to be a battleground in the fight for control of the House, where Republicans now hold a thin majority.

“It’s a bellwether for the rest of the country, in