The economy, not Gaza, will determine how young voters break

Ever since the October 7 attack by Hamas led to Israel launching its brutal assault, progressive activists have argued that President Joe Biden risked losing the support of young voters. Indeed, in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina that gave Democratic primary voters to choose an “uncommitted” option, the largest numbers came from counties that host liberal college towns.

The past month has also seen students at elite Ivy League universities such as Columbia University to public colleges like the University of Texas at Austin put up encampments to protest the war in Gaza. The fact that an ongoing unpopular war also coincides with the Democratic National Convention taking place in Chicago has drawn comparisons — despite numerous differences — to the 1968 convention that saw protesters clash with police during the Vietnam War. Those widespread protests ultimately led to Richard Nixon winning the presidency on a platform of “law and order.”

But while anger at the war in Gaza is real, a recent swath of polls shows that the truth is far more complicated.

Last week, the Harvard Institute of Politics released its Spring 2024 youth poll. The survey shows that voters between the ages of 18 to 29 support a ceasefire in Gaza by a margin of five to one. At the same time, 45 per cent of young voters said that they did not know whether Israel’s response to the October 7 attack was justified, while 32 per cent said it was not justified and 21 per cent said Israel’s response was justified.

In the same respect, 76 per cent of young voters disapprove of Biden’s policies related to the war. But that does not mean that will be the determining factor for most voters. Rather, the survey showed that 64 per cent of young