The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

CNN —

The high-stakes presidential election has taken on increased significance for Democrats’ precarious path to holding power inthe Senate.

Why? Because of the map. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to run for reelection in West Virginia underscored how advantageous the 2024 playing field is for Republicans. But President Joe Biden winning reelection would give Senate Democrats a slight – emphasis on slight – cushion because of the tie-breaking role of the vice president in an evenly divided chamber.

The GOP needs to pick up only one or two seats – depending on which party wins the White House – to flip control of the Senate. West Virginia has long ranked as the seat most likely to flip, and with Manchin’s departure, Republicans are now almost certain to pick it up.

Attention has shifted to the two other red-state seats that Democrats are defending – Montana and Ohio, which are the second and third most likely to flip, respectively. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.)

The race for Senate control this year will offer a crucial political test: Are races so nationalized that the top of the ticket – and the factors swaying the contest – is all that matters? (That’s especially important this year because of how much overlap there is between five states that hold key Senate races and the presidential battlegrounds.) Or are individual candidates, the races they run and local issues just as important? The answer will likely decide who wins the chamber.

Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who