Steve Kornacki: A party can get it wrong — and has before

Battleground polls look bad. Forecasting models are gloomier. States assumed to be safely in their column now seem in play.

The realization that their presidential candidate has no realistic path to victory is sweeping the party. Panicked leaders are speaking out, more and more by the hour. Dozens are now publicly demanding their candidate exit the race. And the other party is licking its chops, thinking big not just about a win but about a landslide up and down the ballot.

It’s happening now with Democrats and President Joe Biden, yes, but it’s also happened before. It was eight Octobers ago when Republicans erupted in panic at the latest — and most dramatic, to date — uproar around their nominee, Donald Trump. The release of the “Access Hollywood” tape convinced scores of major Republicans that Trump’s path to victory had gone from small to nonexistent, and a frantic 36-hour push to dislodge him from the top of the ticket ensued. You know the rest.

How and why Trump prevailed, even after his party’s leaders disowned him, is worth keeping in mind as (at least as of this writing) Biden refuses to relent to similar pressure.

There will always be debate over what exactly put Trump over the top, but however you arrive at it, one critical variable does stand out: his opponent’s profound unpopularity.

From the early days of the 2016 race until the end, barely 40% of voters expressed favorable views of Hillary Clinton. For the entire general election campaign, even as Trump paraded from one scandal and inflammatory eruption to another, Clinton proved stubbornly incapable of even reaching 50% support in the national poll averages. In the exit poll, 61% deemed her dishonest and untrustworthy. A majority said they would be