Split fear and more, why Nitish Kumar dumped BJP in 2022 and why he is looking to return to NDA now

When Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar deserted the BJP in August 2022, he accused the BJP of trying to “split and finish” off his party Janata Dal (United). He changed sides and formed the government with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, and gave the impression that a socialist leader should carry forward his legacy. Three months later, Nitish said Deputy CM Tejashwi Prasad Yadav of RJD would lead the Mahagathbandhan’s Assembly election campaign in 2025.

Cut to January 2024, Nitish and Tejashwi maintained distance at a Republic Day function in Patna as speculation continued to swirl about the CM again deserting his allies and switching sides.

Once the senior NDA partner in Bihar, the JD(U) found itself shrinking and falling behind junior ally BJP. Nitish had been upset with the BJP since his party’s tally in the Assembly plummeted from 71 in 2015 to 43 seats in the 2020 polls while the BJP’s seat count increased from 53 to 74, which was next only to the RJD’s 75.

In private parleys with his party colleagues, Nitish started blaming the BJP for getting Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan to field candidates in almost all the constituencies where the JD(U) was in the fray. The JD(U) believed that Chirag had acted as the BJP’s proxy to cut his party’s votes and defeat its candidates. Even though the LJP won just one constituency, it made a serious dent in Nitish’s vote base.

Nitish is said to have not felt comfortable about Deputy CMs Renu Devi and Tarkishore Prasad, not enjoying the same level of rapport as he did with Sushil Kumar Modi who had been Deputy CM for 13 years. The two had had a close association since the JP Movement days. JD(U) was also wary of the BJP’s alleged attempts to split it, using