Reckless, impetuous, childish, divisive, cunning and graceless? Welcome to Trump 2024

Given the scale and nature ofDonald Trump’s victory in the Republican primary in Iowa – and the state of the opinion polls – it is not too early to contemplate the full enormity of a second term of office for Mr Trump, beginning in a little over a year’s time.

It is going wellfor the former president, and far better than could have been expected in the chaotic atmosphere of insurrection in which he left office three years ago. The “base” is perhaps larger than was previously estimated, and – as Mr Trump himself gleefully points out – every lawsuit laid against him seems to boost his standing.

More troubling for the Democrats, Mr Trump even seems to be slowly picking up a little ground among groups hitherto more reliably Democrat, such as Latino and Black male voters (albeit from a very modest baseline). Meanwhile, President Biden’s personal approval ratings are surprisingly poor, given the relatively strong economic recovery. His party, understandably, must be wondering how things might be under a different candidate – though, with some luck in the swing seats, Mr Biden could still prevail in November.