Polling guru Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the electoral college in latest forecast

Polling guru Nate Silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the electoral college in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday, after a NYT-Siena College poll found Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point.

Harris has come out ahead in several national polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket. However, the results of the new NYT/Siena College poll, according to Silver, show that the results of the poll confirmed his election model's view that there was a "shift in momentum" in the race.

The NYT/Siena college poll also found more voters said Harris is "too liberal or progressive" on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be "too conservative."

According to his model, Harris has just a 36% chance of winning the electoral college, and overall, leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver's national polling average.

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"A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College," Silver wrote in the update at 11 a.m. on Sunday.

Silver initially wrote on Wednesday that Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since the end of August. Harris' odds had decreased from 47.3% to 41.6% in that