Polling guru cautions public against over relying on polls: In last two elections, 'they underestimated Trump'

Polling and data guru Nate Silver said Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly favored to win the presidential election if it were held tomorrow, but cautioned the public against relying too much on polls, citing their record of getting it "wrong" when it comes to former President Trump.

"If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite," Silver said Wednesday on "Special Report." "She has been ahead in most recent polling in the ‘blue wall’ states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range."

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"People should remember, though, two things," he added. "One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections they underestimated Trump."

The prominent elections analyst and statistician published a polling update on his Substack forecast page earlier Wednesday, noting a series of "strong swing state" polling for Harris.

"The race is still in what we’d consider the toss-up range, but Harris’s momentum has been steady and upward," he wrote.

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"Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning," he added. "And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close, and a candidate is rarely out of the running."

Silver recently changed his election prediction to "toss-up" after initially predicting former President Trump was electorally favored to win the White House in November, with Harris winning the popular vote.

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