Party Activists Sceptical Of Polls Predicting Tory Wipeout As July 4 Approaches

In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.

It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.

On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.

There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?

“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”

Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.

In the run-up to polling day, most are planning to keep their heads down and work their own seats hard. “Everyone’s going to be quite selfish with the time they have,” the same Tory source noted. It is only some Cabinet members with large majorities of their