One in six voters say Trump verdict could change their minds ahead of tight election, poll finds

Around one in six voters say that a guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial will make them less likely to vote for him, according to a new poll.

In the NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll released on Thursday, 67 per cent said a guilty verdict would make no difference in their voting intentions while 76 per cent said the same about a not guilty verdict.

Seventeen per cent said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.

Jury deliberations have begun in the trial in which Mr Trump is accused of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to adult actor Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election to keep her quiet about an alleged 2006 affair. He has denied the 34 felony charges against him.

While views of Mr Trump and Joe Biden appear largely set and unlikely to change for many voters, small numbers of those who say a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump are among groups important to the former president in a tight election.

Among white voters without college degrees, 14 per cent said they would be less likely to back the former president if he’s found guilty – the same is true for 17 per cent of those living in small towns, 11 per cent of those who live in rural areas, and 10 per cent of Republicans.

However, the poll also found Biden struggling with voters who brought him to victory in 2020, such as voters between 18 and 29 and voters under 45. In the last election, the younger group comprised about one-sixth of the electorate, while those under 45 made up about 40 per cent.

Exit polls show that Biden won 18-29-year-olds by 60 to 36 per cent and those between 30 and 44 by 52 to 46 per cent.

The NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist survey