On Long Island, Republicans defend an unlikely stronghold as races could tip control of Congress

It’s a 2024 election battleground where millions of dollars are being spent and big names in American politics are popping up. But it’s not in the Rust Belt. And it isn’t Georgia or Nevada, either.

It’s Long Island, a suburban stretch east of New York City, home to some 3 million people who might have an outsized role in choosing which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats shy of winning a majority in the U.S. House and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an improbable stage for some of the most contested races this year.

The region is also an unlikely center of Republican power in deep blue New York.

In some ways, the issues that have pushed Long Island to the right in recent elections could animate any battleground state suburb this November, with GOP candidates framing their campaigns on crime, immigration and the economy. The move by Democrats to replace President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket last month added another unpredictable variable to downballot races all over the country, with both parties scrambling to assess the impact.

But here, Republicans have seized momentum by harnessing suburban backlash over progressive policies in New York City, casting themselves as a dam that can stop the left from swamping Long Island with liberal excess.

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