Nostradamus pollster predicts how an October surprise could impact election

The so-called “Nostradamus of polling” has said that an October surprise wouldn’t change his predictionthat Donald Trump will lose to Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the result of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984, said the October surprise – an unexpected revelation or scandal in the month before voters go to the polls – is “a myth.”

“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” Lichtman told CNN’s Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM.

“I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”

Lichtman’s theory around the October surprise was proven right in 2016 when he predicted Trump would win the election.

That October – one month before the election – Trump’s shocking comments about women in the Access Hollywood tapecame to light.

“I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… Grab ’em by the p***y. You can do anything,” he says in the tape, obtained byThe Washington Post. The 2016 October surprise did not change the result with Trump going on to win.

Lichtman, who shares his analysis on his YouTube channel, predicted last month that Harris will win the election this November.

Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient