Nitish Kumar’s core voter base for decades, why Kushwaha support for NDA is wavering

Addressing a meeting in Bihar’s Ujiarpur Lok Sabha constituency last week, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made an impassioned plea for Nityanand Rai, the junior minister in his department. “I have not done as much work in my constituency Gandhinagar (in Gujarat) as Nityanand Rai has done for Ujiarpur … Nityanand is my friend, ensure his victory with a huge margin,” Shah said.

Ujiarpur, which is one of the five Bihar constituencies going to polls on Monday in the fourth phase, is witnessing a fierce contest between Rai, a two-time sitting MP, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) Alok Kumar Mehta, a former state minister and prominent Kushwaha leader in the region.

The contest underlines the trouble that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) is facing as he tries to keep intact his hold over the 7% Luv-Kush votes — the Kurmi and Koeri (Kushwaha) communities are called Luv-Kush in Bihar. Since the mid-1990s, Nitish has meticulously nurtured this constituency — according to last year’s caste survey, it comprises 4.21% of Bihar’s population — to counter the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank.

Ujiarpur is one of the most populous OBC Kushwaha constituencies with about 2.75 lakh Kushwaha voters. Of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, 15 have between 1.5 to 3 lakh Kushwaha voters who can decide the fate of candidates. These constituencies are Ujiarpur, Samastipur, Karakat, Aurangabad, Nawada, Nalanda, East Champaran, West Champaran, Khagaria, Valmiki Nagar, Arrah, Sitamarhi, Purnia, Jamui, and Patna Saheb.

Among the constituencies that vote fifth phase onwards are Sitamarhi, Valmiki Nagar, East Champaran, West Champaran, Karakat, Nalanda, Arrah, and Patna Saheb.

While the Kurmi vote (about 3%) looks largely intact