Nikki Haley Is The Top Target In The Iowa Caucuses — But That Doesn't Mean She'll Win

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley isn’t counting on former President Donald Trump to win the Iowa caucuses.

“Talk to the people of Iowa; they’re still making up their minds right now,” Haley said Monday night during a Fox News town hall. “For y’all to say that Trump is 30 points up, I would say wait until caucus day. That’s the only day that’s truly going to show where Americans are.”

Haley’s in the minority of people who seem to doubt the very likely outcome of the caucuses — in which Haley, at best, can hope to finish second. That’s made the first contest on the presidential nominating calendar more of a preview for subsequent races in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two primaries that Haley does have a shot at winning. It has also turned the caucuses into a pile-on against Haley, even though she stands almost zero chance of beating Trump next Monday.

“These things aren’t a vacuum,” said Matt Gorman, the former spokesperson for Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), who dropped out of the Republican presidential primary in November. “Not meeting the expectations and not catching momentum from Iowa will affect how you go into New Hampshire. We see that all the time. There isn’t a reset button.”

That dynamic will be on full display Wednesday night at CNN’s final pre-caucus debate between Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Once again, Trump will be skipping the event, opting for a solo Fox News town hall airing at the same time. The absence of Trump (who qualified for the debate) and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (who didn’t) gives DeSantis and Haley the space to make their cases clearly against one another — with an eye toward the next races on the primary calendar.

Haley’s perceived momentum is evident in the