Nate Silver releases first election model since Harris became presumptive Dem nominee, teases possible trend

Join Fox News for access to this content Plus special access to select articles and other premium content with your account - free of charge. By entering your email and pushing continue, you are agreeing to Fox News' Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, which includes our Notice of Financial Incentive. Please enter a valid email address. Having trouble? Click here.

Statistician Nate Silver released on Tuesday his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Silver wrote in Substack that although Harris is favored to win the popular vote, she is "a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections."

He added that Harris is in a better position than President Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger. Furthermore, Silver said that Biden had a 27% chance of beating Trump before he withdrew from the race.

VP HARRIS HOLDS RALLY IN CRUCIAL BATTLEGROUND STATE DAYS BEFORE TRUMP AT SAME VENUE

Harris quickly coalesced Democratic Party support in the two days after Biden's July 21 announcement that he was ending his 2024 re-election bid against former President Trump and endorsing his vice president.

"Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance," Silver wrote.

He added that the trend of Democrats winning the popular vote could continue: "In fact, she’s a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000. If an election were held today, we’d enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) has been close