More Immigrants Boost Economy, Reduce Budget Deficit, Congress’ Nonpartisan Scorekeeper Says

A “surge” of immigrants has boosted the U.S. economy recently and is projected to add almost $9 trillion to it through 2034, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in a new report Tuesday.

The CBO, in an update to budget and economic forecasts made in February, said the current level of immigration of “other foreign nationals” was well above historical patterns and would continue to add to the overall size of the U.S. population, providing more workers for the labor force and thus boosting the economy.

The CBO said the net immigration rate of “other foreign nationals,” a category including undocumented migrants, had risen from around 200,000 annually to 1.9 million in 2022, and is now projected to hit about 2.4 million this year. That spike is expected to decline to previous levels after 2026, the office said.

CBO said it took a look at how the economy and the federal budget would look if immigration stayed at the old 200,000 annual level from 2024 to 2034, compared to new projections that factor in the current surge in immigration. The $8.9 trillion difference between them pencils out to a 2.4% jump in the country’s gross domestic product, the report found.

Most of the gain, $7.8 trillion, would occur simply because the U.S. population would be bigger, the CBO said. Increases in the proportion of the population working and in productivity would also add slightly to the economy. But the the increase in immigration is also projected to also result in more lower-paying jobs, which would be a slight drag on economic growth.

“Increases in the supply of workers put downward pressure on wages, particularly for people with 12 or fewer years of education. That downward pressure is stronger for immigrants in the surge