Key voting groups are shifting in the race between Biden and Trump

There may have been a 4.8 magnitude earthquake that hit the Northeast on Friday, but there are indications some political tremors may also be taking place beneath the surface.

The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that President Biden and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, with Biden holding a slim 2-point lead, 50%-48%.

The closeness of the contest between the two candidates is to be expected. Given how well-known they are and the fact they ran against each other once already, people might think voters are locked in. But the survey found that plenty of people — about 40% --said they are at least open to changing their minds.

Some key demographic groups are shifting, too. Young voters, Latinos and independents in the survey are either sliding away from Biden or aren't sold on voting for him. There's a massive shift among nonwhite voters overall, while older voters and college-educated white voters — men in particular — are moving heavily in Biden's direction.

That has the potential to reshape the presidential map again. It gives Democrats increased hopes of continuing gains in Sun Belt states, like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Mexico, where the populations continue to grow more diverse and have fewer blue-collar white voters. Republicans, on the other hand, could increase their grip on parts of the industrial Midwest.

"It's a big deal, because we're in the beginnings of a seismic shift in the nature of our parties," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey of more than 1,300 adults. "Regardless of what happens in 2024, there's a coalitional shifting going on, and the question is, where does that end up and where are we in